The central bank is preparing new restrictions for mortgage programs with deferred payment growth. The NCFU expert spoke about how the innovation will affect borrowers, credit organizations and developers of the Stavropol Territory.

The central bank intends to limit the issuance of loans under schemes in which the borrower pays less in the first years, and then the payment increases sharply. The regulator plans to reduce the grace period to three years and oblige banks to form increased reserves for such mortgage loans. As experts explain, in the new conditions, it will become economically unprofitable for credit institutions to work with such programs.

We are talking about the so-called "tranche" mortgage with time-differentiated payments, when in the early years the contribution is artificially low at the expense of the developer or the special conditions of the bank. According to experts, such schemes carry hidden risks both for the borrowers themselves and for the banking system as a whole.

– This type of mortgage creates the illusion of affordability: the borrower relies on his strength based on a low initial payment, but may not be ready for a sharp jump in financial burden after a few years. In addition, a "low payment" is often included in the final cost of the apartment at the start, which is why the buyer overpays for the object itself," said Victoria Mitrokhina, Doctor of Economics, Professor of Finance and Credit at the North Caucasus Federal University (NCFU).

According to the NCFU expert, the main threat from the banking system is an increase in non–payments: at the end of the grace period, the probability of defaults increases, which negatively affects the stability of the entire system. The classic tool of macro-regulation in such a situation, she stressed, is precisely the limitation of the grace period to three years and the requirement to form increased reserves.

– When a bank is obliged to put more money into reserves for "risky" loans, it freezes capital that could make a profit, — Victoria Mitrokhina explained.

An increase in reserves means that banks will be forced to immobilize huge amounts of liquidity "in reserve" instead of sending them into circulation and making money. The operating assets of credit institutions will decrease, and due to lower margins, banks will almost completely abandon partnership schemes with developers, where payments in the first three years will increase by more than 20%. In the long run, this will protect their balance sheets from the "hidden" bad debts that would inevitably arise if borrowers did not massively pull sharply increased market payments.

But for borrowers, restrictions will result in reduced availability at the start.

– The opportunity to wait out the first years of building a house with a low payment will disappear, combining the mortgage with the rental of housing – you will have to pay immediately at the full market rate. At the same time, advantages are expected: developers will no longer be able to put a "commission to the bank" into the loan body, and the artificial mark-up on housing, which reached about 20-30% due to these schemes, will disappear. Citizens will also be protected from a severe "cash gap" when, after 1-3 years, the monthly payment under the contract has increased dramatically," commented Victoria Mitrokhina.

The most tangible consequences will be for developers. Previously, deferred payment growth schemes occupied up to 20-30% of all disbursements in the new building market, and their disappearance will noticeably "cool" demand. Developers will have to develop other tools to attract buyers.

– In order to maintain the pace of sales and the fullness of escrow accounts, developers, according to the expert, will have to lower prices or accept lower profits: it will no longer be possible to simply "put" a subsidy into the cost of an apartment, - said the NCFU expert.

The new rules should come into force on July 1, 2027, and the relevant legislative draft will be released in early 2027, so the real estate market has time to adapt, the NCFU economist emphasizes, emphasizing that in the "Main Directions of the unified state Monetary policy" for 2027-2029, the Bank of Russia consistently prescribes a tough course to combat artificially inflating prices for new buildings and neighborhood schemes.