An expert from the North Caucasus Federal University (NCFU) explained the decrease in the cost of a "square" in the secondary housing market in Chechnya by several factors, noting that this phenomenon is not market-driven, but structurally determined.

The average cost per square meter on the secondary market in Russia has increased in 83 regions over the year, but a decrease has been noted in the Chechen Republic. So, in Chechnya, the cost of a "square" on the secondary market decreased by almost 2 percent over the year, although Chechnya ranks 81st out of 85 in the housing affordability rating, according to RIA Rating for 2026.

"The decrease in the price per square meter in the secondary market of Chechnya (-1.8%) against the background of nationwide growth (+9.3%) is not a spontaneous market phenomenon, but a structurally determined one. The key factors are the tectonic shift in the supply structure, targeted social policy and the psychological factor of the "new city"," says Doctor of Economics, Head of the Department of Finance and Accounting at the Pyatigorsk Institute (branch) NCFU Natalia Novoselova.

The first factor is that large-scale construction in Grozny creates an oversupply of new, high-quality housing. The buyer gets an alternative to the "secondary" – a new building with Parking lots, playgrounds and a socialized infrastructure. This is a classic law of supply and demand: as the supply of new housing increases, the price of outdated second homes adjusts downward, even if there is not enough effective demand for this.

The factor of targeted social policy is explained by the fact that the allocation of free housing to needy families directly washes out the most socially vulnerable part of potential buyers of secondary housing from the market. If the government provides housing, then these families do not enter the market, reducing the demand for cheap segments of secondary housing, which also puts pressure on the price.

And the third factor is explained by the fact that, for example, the Putin quarter, which is currently being actively built up, is positioned not just as a residential area, but as a new center of Grozny with a developed infrastructure and modern architecture. For buyers, this becomes a matter of prestige, which shifts attention from the "secondary" to the "primary", even if it is more expensive at face value. In other words, the price reduction is not a crisis, but a correction caused by the active state housing policy and development activity, which saturates the market with higher–quality goods.

In the medium term (3-5 years), as the NCFU expert notes, housing in the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District is likely not to become massively more affordable, but the unevenness within the district will remain. Despite the growth in construction, three constraints can also be identified here: the income of the population in comparison with the growth in supply, geographical conditions and differentiation within the North Caucasus Federal District.

"Even if supply is growing, as in Grozny, effective demand is limited. According to the housing affordability rating, a family in Chechnya needs 11.3 years to save up for an apartment, which indicates extremely low affordability. Without faster growth in real incomes of the population, a 1.8% reduction in prices does not change anything in fundamental accessibility. It is also worth remembering that the North Caucasus is mountainous, meaning construction is severely limited by geographical conditions and a shortage of available space. Therefore, the new quarters will be dotted "oases", and not a mass flow, as in the plains. Vacant land will quickly run out, which, with increasing demand, will raise the price of new real estate in local spots. And, of course, while Grozny and Makhachkala are showing a boom, other regions are stagnating, so we cannot talk about a single trend of "accessibility" for the entire macroregion. Somewhere the price will fall, and somewhere, on the contrary, it will rise due to the shortage of land," explains Natalia Novoselova.

At the same time, there are prerequisites for improvement, but not for all categories, but only for "beneficiaries" and "displaced persons". These are federal programs that are the main drivers of accessibility, but they are targeted. This refers, for example, to resettlement from dilapidated housing or rural mortgages. Also, improving infrastructure can make areas remote from the centers more attractive, which will expand the geography of available "squares".

"Thus, in the medium term, we will see a market stratification. In some cities (like Grozny), new housing will become "luxury" and become more expensive, while secondary housing in older areas will become much cheaper, but it will not be in demand, as people want comfort more," concludes the NCFU expert.

It turns out that "cheaper" does not mean "more affordable" if this square meter is located in a dilapidated house without infrastructure. Affordability, that is, buying a proper home, will remain the main challenge in the macroregion.