Rustem Nureyev gave lectures at the "Summer University" of NCFU
Rustem Nureyev, one of the most authoritative scientists and economists of our country, spoke to Belarusian students participating in the large-scale international project "Summer University", which is being held at NCFU. He told the audience about the impact of the demographic explosion on the economy, world trends and expert forecasts.
Rustem Nureyev is a scientific consultant of the Department of Economic Theory of the Financial University under the Government of Russia, an ordinary professor of the Higher School of Economics, an Honored Worker of the Higher School of the Russian Federation. He is widely known for his numerous publications on the problems of microeconomics, development economics, public choice and pre-industrial economic systems. Rustem Nureyev makes presentations and gives lectures around the world. Earlier, the scientist has already made a presentation at one of the international conferences in NCFU. This time he came to give a lecture to the students of the program" Digital Transformation – New Economic opportunities "of the NCFU Summer University. The scientist drew the attention of the Belarusian youth to the impact of demographic processes on the economy.
Rustem Nureyev began his speech with the most relevant topic for the whole world – coronavirus infection and the role of vaccination to prevent its further spread. The scientist recalled that epidemics are as old as the world. Since the middle of the 14th century, when the Black Death plague claimed almost half of the population of Europe and about a quarter of the world's population, they occurred at intervals of about a hundred years. In 1919-1920, the " Spanish influenza" raged in Europe. Then 550 million people were infected with it. The Spanish flu claimed more lives than the I and II World Wars combined. In the twentieth century, many severe viral diseases were defeated due to mass vaccination. The last played an important role in the demographic explosion that occurred.
As Rustem Nureyev noted, after the end of World War II, many colonial and semi-colonial countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America gained independence. Americans who came to Asia found that such diseases as plague, smallpox, cholera, anthrax and some others are still common there, which thanks to vaccination at that time were completely defeated in developed countries.
"America and the Soviet Union insisted on compulsory vaccination of the entire adult population in the least developed countries," the scientist said. – This led to an unusual phenomenon. These countries have traditionally been characterized by a high birth rate and high mortality, which is typical for pre-industrial societies. After the end of World War II, no one could cancel the laws of fertility overnight – it remained high, but the laws of mortality were brought under control thanks to mass vaccination. Since then, the population in these countries has been growing rapidly.
So, in 2020, three countries with the highest population in the world included China (more than 1421189542 inhabitants), India (1372371781 inhabitants) and the United States (329680822 inhabitants). This is followed by Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria and Bangladesh. Russia and Mexico complete the top ten leaders. The only European country in the top 20 is Germany (position 19). By 2100, according to experts, neither Russia nor other European countries will be included in such a rating. It will be led by India, China and Nigeria. The United States will fall to the fourth place. All other positions in the top 20 will be occupied by countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. This will inevitably affect both the balance of power on the world stage and the economy.
– The world will be completely different, and we in Europe, Russia and the United States underestimate the pace of development in Asia, Africa and Latin America, - the scientist stressed. - The situation is changing much faster than we could have imagined. Only by the end of the XXI century, the situation will level out, and in these countries there will be two children per woman.
The socio-economic indicators of developing countries are gradually approaching the values achieved in Europe. Their part in global GDP is growing. Thanks to the measures taken (more equally distribution of income, the development of education, human and social capital), the number of poor people is decreasing, the level of well-being is increasing. The scientist paid special attention to the problems that may escalate in developed countries, for example, an even greater flow of migrants. According to Rustem Nureyev, today it is necessary to pay great attention to the study of the impact of modern technologies and innovations on economic growth. It is also necessary to rethink the role of information and the network economy, to conduct a comparative analysis of various economic systems. In addition, it is important to analyze social interactions, problems of economic inequality and other acute issues, including those related to the environment.
After talking with Belarusian students and teachers of the "Summer University", Rustem Nureyev shared his impressions of the project:
– I believe that it is necessary to take energetic steps to restore the post-Soviet space – the scientist noted. – Our future will depend on the young generation, who does not know our history and economy well, and how successfully the scientists who will grow out of these students will be able to contact our colleagues. In this sense, all of us, the participants of the Summer University project, are doing a very important, good thing. I would like to note separately that I liked the way the process is organized in NCFU. The level of training of Belarusian students is different, but I think they will all benefit from studying at the federal university.